Macy’s, AI and the Anatomy of San Francisco's ‘Doom Loop’ game

AI ended San Francisco's Doom Loop. Then Macy's brought it back

Macy’s, AI and the Anatomy of San Francisco's ‘Doom Loop’ game
the loop of doom strikes again

What a difference a week makes.

It was only a few days ago that Mayor London Breed’s supporters were declaring the San Francisco “Doom Loop” to be officially over. They were all over Twitter, pushing a rather cloying, embarrassing and overwrought article in The Economist magazine, which declared the city to be in a total resurgence, thanks to … Artificial Intelligence.

Yes, AI has completely changed the “mood” of San Francisco, according to the venerable UK-based magazine in a story headlined "How San Francisco Staged a Surprising Comeback." You’ve got to read it to believe it:

When you live in the city, you can feel ai in the air. Drive to the airport and every second billboard tells you the various ways in which your business can improve by adopting AI. Go to a party and every second guest says that they are working on the tech or in an industry being transformed by it. Barely a day goes by without some nerdy event to satisfy your curiosity about the world’s liveliest intellectual field, from talks about the philosophy of artificial general intelligence to mlhops, a meet-up for AI folk who like beer.

Wow, this really captured the spirit of SF.

Uh, did an AI write this paragraph? Bizarrely, the Economist even appeared to give AI credit for reducing overdose deaths and car break-ins:

There are now signs that the local quality of life is starting to improve: overdoses have begun to fall; in the final months of 2023 car break-ins halved.

Perhaps news of San Francisco’s record-high overdose deaths in 2023 didn’t make it over to London, England? (For another glaring example of this tech propaganda, check out this masterpiece of the genre: "San Francisco Doom Loop Coming to An End, Tech Billionaires Say in Rosy Outlook for City")

It’s clear why Breed and her boosters were so desperate to push this story. It’s propaganda that distorts short-term statistics into a definitive trend, crediting Breed and her tech supporters for ending the city’s alleged doom spiral just in time for the 2024 election.

Neat little narrative there … be a shame if something happened to it.

Macy's Kills 'SF comeback'

Sure enough, the miraculous comeback narrative has now unraveled with the earth-shaking news that Macy’s will be closing its flagship Union Square store as part of a nationwide brand shrinkage. The venerable old department store chain, a victim of the e-commerce age and utter mediocrity, is cutting 150 stores nationwide. (Seriously, when is the last time you were excited to enter Macy's? Been about 15 years for me...)

Now, let's be clear: This has nothing to do with the city or its leaders. But in San Francisco, everything becomes part of the political blame game. So, the closure of Macy’s had to be someone’s fault (and, unfortunately, Chesa Boudin is unavailable).

Breed's challengers in the mayoral race, Mark Farrell and Daniel Lurie, wasted no time in blaming Breed’s failed leadership. Farrell called the closure a “gut punch” to the city and promised to do better. Lurie gamely rushed down to Union Square for a photo-op.

“This one stings,” he wrote on X-Twitter. “City Hall insiders have destroyed a vibrant downtown many of us remember, and are now asking for a second chance. We need new leadership.”

While I (like 71% of SF residents) agree with them on the failed leadership part, it’s hard to see how Breed or anyone else at City Hall bears any responsibility for the challenging macroeconomics of department stores.

Supervisor Matt Dorsey had an absolutely psychedelic take on the whole matter, claiming that Macy’s might have been saved if his pro-police legislation had passed the Board of Supervisors. 

“I can’t help but wonder if businesses leaving S.F. might have stayed if a fully funded 5-year plan to achieve full police staffing were on the ballot right now,” sniffed Dorsey, putting the blame on progressives as usual.

Nice try! (And bonus points for making it all about you, supervisor. But seriously, this is MAGA-level braindead logic. Please take ten breaths before you tweet.)

Supervisor Aaron Peskin appeared to be the only adult in the room, immediately pivoting to a discussion of how the city could partner with the private sector to make use of the flagship building that Macy’s plans to sell. “Every devastating phone call has an opportunity somewhere and every challenge has a flip side – with the right political will and public-private collaboration,” he wrote, sounding far too mature and sensible to be a candidate for mayor of San Francisco in 2024. “Let’s get to work.” (Zzzz!)

So much for The Economist’s premature declaration of AI-based triumph. Rumors of the San Francisco Doom Loop’s demise were greatly exaggerated (by the Economist). With the Macy’s news, the Doom Loop discourse is back, baby!

SF propaganda loop

The Doom Loop narrative provides a great lesson on political communication. 

First, short-term strategies can be dangerous. Low-skilled political players love short-term strategies because they appear to produce quick results. But short-term strategies often carry long-term consequences.

The Doom Loop, which asserts that San Francisco is experiencing a massive decline, was a short-term strategy largely used as a political cudgel to target former District Attorney Boudin and other progressives.

But after voters ousted Boudin in 2022, his detractors inherited a big headache: their own damn Doom Loop. With San Francisco continuing to produce Doom Loop symptoms – open air drug markets, retail thefts, car break-ins, closing businesses, etc. – it suddenly became clear that Boudin wasn’t to blame after all. 

With both Breed and DA Brooke Jenkins unable to magically end the Doom Loop as promised, there was only one option left: Pretend the SF Doom Loop is over (or that the whole Doom Loop has officially moved to Oakland). This explains why, over the past few months, we’ve seen a steady effort to portray San Francisco as being in the middle of a dramatic comeback. 

This brings us to the other problem with short-term strategies: They’re short-term. It’s a rookie mistake to make a big deal out of short-term positive statistics. This is true whether we’re talking about crime, overdose deaths or the stock market. Trends build or decline over longer periods of time. Fools ignore this reality at their own peril.

So when the mayor rushes to take credit for a short-term decline in car burglaries, she’s setting herself up to take the blame when they spike again. And when she claims credit for the good things, she’s admitting responsibility for the bad things as well. 

I personally don’t subscribe to the Doom Loop theory, but I fear it’s here to stay. The narrative has been successfully framed in our brains, and it’s a catchy shorthand way to lazily describe the city’s woes. Simply wishing it away won’t work, as Breed (and The Economist) are learning. Every new piece of bad news gets absorbed into the black hole of the Doom Loop narrative. At this point, the algorithm is in control, and we're getting Doom Looped regardless of whether it's real or not.

The lesson: Don't push a Doom Loop narrative about the city you lead. Because you will then be responsible for the Doom Loop.

Even AI can't save us from the all-powerful "DL" meme. In fact, Macy’s closure would seem to be the latest example of technology (and changing consumer tastes) eating the world alive. But why meditate on the complexities of the 21st century economy when you can just blame someone you don't like?

In San Francisco, the game is blame or be blamed.