Trump-Vance Conspiracy Theory Doesn't Add Up
As Trump's poll numbers sink due to his handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, a new conspiracy theory has emerged.
It holds that Silicon Valley overlords are plotting to overthrow Trump and replace him with JD Vance. In fact, perhaps they are the ones orchestrating the entire Epstein debacle for this exact purpose! And, with Trump out of the way, Peter Thiel would be the new president, since Vance is almost entirely a creation of Thiel, his benefactor and employer for most of his adult life.
Reality check: While I don't put anything past these Silicon Valley authoritarians, there are some big problems with this theory.
First, the MAGA base follows Trump, not Vance. MAGA is a cult based on the personality of one man. As I've said in recent interviews, it's not clear what happens to MAGA after Trump. There is no heir apparent, and the deeply unpopular Vance lacks the charisma to capture the base.
This poses an existential problem for the fascist alliance as we head into the future. There’s no one like Trump, who has built his public persona over decades as a celebrity and media phenomenon. Even amid the Epstein Files firestorm, a CNN poll found that 88% of the MAGA base remains supportive of him.
Vance: A MAGA Judas?
If Vance is perceived as betraying Trump, his poll numbers will dive even further. He would become reviled by MAGA as a living Judas, providing the opportunity for some Trump loyalist to emerge and capture the base. This would tear the Republican Party apart and provide the ever-feckless Democratic establishment with a chance to regain power.
Besides, Vance's sugar daddy—Peter Thiel—has some Epstein problems of his own. Epstein invested millions in a fund co-founded by Thiel, according to a June 4 report in The New York Times. Not a great look for Vance—he's the VP of a guy whose name is in the Epstein Files, and he's the beneficiary of a tech mogul who managed money for the dead pedophile.
In a post-Trump world, it would probably be best for the Republican Party to find someone with zero Epstein ties (if that's even possible).
The Trump-Thiel Government
But here's the reality: Silicon Valley authoritarians don't need to overthrow Trump. They’re doing quite well in the current situation. Thiel's protégés now populate key positions throughout the administration. The “PayPal Mafia”—the network of former PayPal executives who've gone on to found or fund major tech companies—has effectively colonized significant portions of the federal government. The Trump administration is one big Christmas tree for AI and crypto barons.
They don't need a coup when they've got a merger. The tech oligarchs aren't plotting in shadows; they're operating in plain sight, transforming government into their preferred operating system. Why stage a messy palace revolution when you can simply purchase the palace?
Even the apparent fractures in this alliance support this point. It’s true that Elon Musk went to war against Trump, but that's hardly a surprise. Musk can't stand competition and tends to flame out of every relationship. While he certainly supercharged the Epstein issue by announcing that Trump was in the Epstein files, Trump was already in a pickle due to his backtracking on his promise to release the documents. Democrats had already been pushing Trump to release the Epstein files. Musk, ever the drama king, simply poured gas on the flame.
But here's the thing: public feuds make terrible coups. If Musk were really orchestrating some grand plot, would he telegraph it by chaotically posting accusations about Trump on social media for all to see? The very visibility of his attacks undermines any notion of shadowy coordination.
There are fractures and tensions in the MAGA-tech alliance. Surely, some of Trump’s tech allies despise him and wish they didn’t have to deal with him. But an attempted overthrow would only worsen their political plight, splintering an already fragile effort and inciting serious backlash.
A Rehashed 'Coup' Conspiracy
Conspiratorial thinking seduces us with a comforting delusion. It enables us to make sense of things we don't understand—without needing any pesky evidence to prove anything. JD Vance met with Rupert Murdoch in June? It must be a coup!
More likely: Trump's VP met with Murdoch to plead for better coverage for his boss. That's standard political damage control. But mundane reality is not quite as sexy as a villainous coup that ignores the fundamental political dynamics of the situation (Vance needs Trump, not the other way around).
Of course, this isn't the first time we've heard about a sneaky plot to replace a president with another politician. Republicans spread a similar conspiracy theory about Democrats supposedly plotting to replace Joe Biden with a younger candidate—either Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsom—just in time for the Democratic National Convention. But when Biden did drop out after his disastrous debate performance in June 2024, Kamala Harris became the nominee. The conspiracy theory then shifted to suggest that Harris had orchestrated the whole thing.
And then she lost the election to Trump.
Harris's defeat revealed the fundamental danger of stepping into a boss's shoes without an independent base of support—exactly the same trap that would await Vance if he tried a takeover of Trump's movement. It's a cautionary tale that conspiracy lovers might want to consider: sometimes the most dramatic political upheavals lead not to master strokes, but to spectacular failures.
Further reading
Over at FrameLab, I wrote about how Trump now finds himself in a hell of his own making after pumping up the Epstein Files to his base.
Gil Duran
